Star Trek Earth Population Predictions

posted on November 25th, 2012, 2:04 am

Here are some interesting calculations I did based on the current population and average growth rate over the past few thousand years.

At the end of World War III, First Contact claimed that there were 9 billion people on an assimilated earth. I think it's safe to assume that that number is the number where the Borg assimilated the Earth and thus stopped the population growth. I made a population predictor application and using an average growth rate of about 0.48%, starting with 6 people 4,401 years before First Contact, we end up with a population prediction of 8.52 billion people at the time that the Borg assimilated the Earth.

At the time that Enterprise was actually fighting the cube (assuming no non-humans are ever on earth), the population would be 39.50 billion people. But with the introduction of aliens to the Earth by the 22nd century, the estimate listed here is the minimum population, which by the way, could actually fit quite well (though crowded) in a 245 by 57-mile area on the Earth.

Trivia:
Starting with 6 people 4,360 years ago with an average growth rate of 0.48%, you wind up with a population prediction that's within 100 million of the current population. Current population is 6.97 billion, predicted population is 7.00 billion. Ancient records show a growth rate as low as ~0.25% and as high as today (~1.2%) and even higher, with an average of around 0.5% per year. Growth rate appears to have been around 1.75% per year about 40 years ago and staying there for about 10 years before dropping to today's rates.

posted on November 25th, 2012, 2:31 am

Considering that in the Star Trek universe there is an abundance of hospitable worlds I would imagine that a rather large percentage of people would have colonized them. If they announced tommorrow that they had a stargate to another alien world with a breathable atmosphere and similar gravity etc. , half of the planet would be chomping at the bit to be sent over there. The other half are mouth breathers so they don't count.

Another thing to consider is that since war and famine were supposedly eliminated *yawn* there was no longer any need for families to have lots of kids so that their chances of carrying on the family line improved. The wealthier a nation and its citizens get the lower the birthrate.

And probably the biggest reason why there might not be that many people is by that time they would have pretty much perfected some cheap, virtually 100% effective birth control that you only had to take once and lasted for years or until you changed your mind.

The one caveat is if they have developed "insta babies" in the future.

posted on November 26th, 2012, 8:53 am

Without dabbling too much into modern day ethics and politics, you will never remove the instinctive desire to procreate, even with a theorised super-effective side-effect free birth control. (Nor personally, should we attempt to). It's as deeply ingrained in the DNA of who we are as the need to find food, the desire to explore our surroundings and the need for companionship.

As mentioned though, off world colonisation will be a major factor, and also think of the advances we have made since the industrial revolution in regards to farming and medicine. We can support far larger populations than was ever possible with pre-industrial technology and expertise. If you look at how advanced things are supposed to be in Trek, then there is no reason to believe that our farming methods haven't similarly improved. Yes, there will always be regular farms, like the Picard Vineyard, as I am sure that there will be a demand for "real" food the same as there is for Organic stuff today. It's also referenced several times that in many cases, replicated foodstuffs just don't "taste the same" although it might be all in the mind

I seem to remember reading on the (admittedly 'non-canon') Starfleet Museum that after the Earth-Romulan War and the founding of the Federation, there was a massive "push to the stars" by mankind, colonising any piece of rock they could find (hospitable or not). It massively concerned the Vulcans, who were worried that mankind was spreading far too fast, and it lead to the "Colonial Period" of the Federation which ended in the mid-2230s after a border war with the Klingon Empire. So, that would explain where your earth-dwelling humans went