EC 2012 Poland/Ukraine

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posted on June 13th, 2012, 8:58 pm
Germany beats Holland (Darn x3), Portugal beats Denmark.

Best case scenario for Holland is 3rd place IF they beat Portugal with huge numbers which to be honest is unlikely.

Holland is out of the race regardless. Battle for 2nd place is between Denmark and Portugal.

Portugal has to beat Holland and Denmark has to beat Germany.

I would have loved to see Holland go to the next round, but in all honesty they do not deserve it when they perform like this.
posted on June 13th, 2012, 9:48 pm
akshully you can still make it through.

if you beat portugal, you and portugal will both be on 3 points. if germany beat denmark (pretty likely even though they only need a draw) then denmark will also be on 3 points. then it comes down to goal difference. yours is -2, denmark's and portugal's is currently 0, but both will have to fall if you and germany win, so you need to win by 2 goals or more against portugal to get through on goal difference assuming germany beat denmark by 1 goal. if germany beat denmark by more goals, then you don't have to thump portugal.

at least van persie might have his confidence back to help you get goals, he's started this tournament really badly, and continued that today. but he did the right thing, he kept trying and didn't give up, and he was rewarded with a really good goal.

fernando torres did the opposite when he had a dry spell for chelsea, he stopped attacking and getting in good positions and started standing around at the edge of the box waiting for a bus. that's why tim howard (everton goalie, scored a fluke last season) outscored him over an 11 match period at one time.

robben was terrible today, when he was subbed off for being crap, he walked off the wrong side of the pitch, walked past the fans, took his shirt off and sat and sulked outside the dugout like a 5 year old. a selfish player. he showed that in the match, tried spectacular shots too often (they're only great if you score) and didn't pass the ball. hope he gets benched next match.
posted on June 13th, 2012, 10:39 pm
Well Holland going to the next round is strung together by some pretty big "if".

If Holland beats Portugal then the number of goals will come into play. I think Denmark and Portugal have 3 goals total. Holland has 1.

Perhaps it is possible, but the odds are stacked against us (Holland)
posted on June 13th, 2012, 11:11 pm
Actually i was wrong, it's not goal difference, it goes to points counted on a head to head basis. see article 8 paragraph 7 of UEFA's regulations on the tournament (also attached in zip because PDF files are not allowed).

so lets assume you beat portugal and germany beat denmark (the most likely results of the matches).

so if 3 teams are tied for 2nd place with 3 points each, then the points are only considered from the matches between those 3 teams. which would still be 3 for each of you as all of you would have got beaten by germany and got no points in those matches.

then it goes to goal difference in these matches. not goals scored. currently portugal and denmark are both +1 ignoring the germany results, and you are -1.

the only difference this makes from the earlier calculations i did is that denmark's result against germany won't count. they will still have +1, so you need at least a 3 goal margin of victory against portugal. a 2 goal margin will leave you above portugal but still tied with denmark and then it goes to goals scored, which denmark have 2 vs portugal and 1 vs you, so they will go through, your goal scored vs germany doesn't count.

so yeah, win by 3 goals or more against portugal, you'll need a miracle.

Attachments

UEFA's regs.zip
UEFA regs for 2012 EC
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posted on June 14th, 2012, 10:52 pm
pwned... :lol: Hello Denmark!
posted on June 14th, 2012, 10:58 pm
denmark have been punching above their weight. germany only need a draw and denmark will stand a good chance of progressing if they get a draw.

denmark deserve a lot of credit, many would have written them off as fodder for the other teams in the group of death, but they beat netherlands and should have got a point from portugal, varela got lucky with his late winner and portugal (read: ronaldo) were wasteful in front of goal.
posted on June 17th, 2012, 9:28 pm
lol russia went out and netherlands failed to collect a single point.

at least something went as planned, germany robotically moved on to QFs.
posted on June 24th, 2012, 11:18 am
Germany vs Greece were quite interesting to watch. The Germans nailed the blue-white guys at their goal. 6 goals in a game is nice to watch. What surprised me the most was the new guys Löw came up with. An excellent choice that is so refreshingly balanced in the offensive and defensive way. Most teams had a very defensive play style so far with only one man at the front. I think the next challenge for the Germans will be England. The poor man of this championship for me is Ronaldo. He definitely has as much bad luck as the whole bunch of teams together. Maybe it's the pressure. ;)

Edit: Oh.. and the Netherlands just deserve it. The whole team spirit is infested by spite, envy and dishonor. They need to build up a new team with young guys.
posted on June 24th, 2012, 11:47 am
Couldn't agree more about our national team (Holland). Too much individuality and too little team.
posted on June 25th, 2012, 12:30 pm
What a way to go for England. Losing on penalties seems wrong somehow.

For the Netherlands there was a small but bright victory today.
http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2 ... ran_to.php
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=acrS0kPY ... r_embedded
posted on June 25th, 2012, 3:00 pm
Andre27 wrote:What a way to go for England. Losing on penalties seems wrong somehow.


not for england it isn't. we don't use the p-word in England, our team are allergic to them, we haven't won a shootout in decades. i think it's 1 win out of the last 8 shootouts. with those stats i doubt this generation of players will ever win a shootout. the scars are just too deep. the expectation is we'll always lose, and so we find a way to do so.

Personally I think we got to the stage of the competition we deserved on merit. our team isn't fantastic and injuries left us with forced choices. up and coming younger players may do better in the future, but for now i think we got to where we deserved, and have no shame exiting at the QFs, we even topped our group. we have the basis of effective well drilled defending, which isn't too bad a starting point.

our target area to improve on is possession of the ball. we concede possession cheaply and have held less than 50% possession in all euro 12 matches so far. every team has denied us the ball. i think part of that is due to a static formation, our creative striker rooney should be told to drop back and equalise the numbers in midfield. giving us 3 central midfielders. gerrard has been our best player this tournament, but he spent that match chasing pirlo's shadow. they had 4 in the middle of the park at times, we had 2. it's to their credit that they didn't get completely overrun.

on the night I was disappointed by the lack of honour of the italian team. all throughout the competition england have always put the ball out of play when an opponent acts like they're hurt (no other team did that), and the italians were acting hurt a lot. at one point we were up in attack about to put in a cross, when one of their players goes down holding his face after his shoulder was brushed by one of our players. he whined and bitched so much that the ref had to blow his whistle and stop play, then he magically healed and got up. he'd accomplished what he wanted, stopping the attack. there should be fines for that sort of stuff.

At every set play where england could score from a header, they were holding the shirts of our men (john terry got the worst of it), but of course england never get penalties. refs think our players are all rugby players, and that we can't be fouled. it was shameful, i don't know what the goal line officials are there for, they never tell the ref about any fouls. they are ridiculous, i've never seen them make any decisions in their history, they're only there for show, so that michel platini can bury his head in the sand for a few more years.

that's my only annoyance, the terrible quality of officiating. soon we may have goal line technology, but that won't stop shirt pulling or bad offside calls or off the ball incidents, it will only tell if the ball has crossed the line. we need replays, the commentators get multi angle replays seconds after any incident, yet the ref isn't allowed this help. cricket is worth far less money than football yet they can get replays. every major competition has mistakes from the officials, and this won't change any time soon.

germany have to beat italy if italy bring the same as yesterday in the semis. germany have 2 teams full of players that could beat italy imo.

i think spain will continue their annoying winners' habit of getting 1 goal in the first half, then playing crap for 70 more minutes and winning 1-0. they won the last euros and world cup with this strategy. it's a sign of champions: playing crap but still not getting beaten. I don't think portugal will show up, they'll leave without having made a fight of it. I'd love to be proved wrong and have a 5 goal thriller, i just don't see it happening.

also lol @ holland winning robot footie.
posted on July 2nd, 2013, 7:58 am
Speaking of the national team. Still like Brazil.
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