the reson i dont chage what i sed is be cuss its the troth and the troth duss not chage.
The strongest hurricanes in the present climate may be upstaged by even more intense hurricanes over the next century as the earth's climate is warmed by increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Although we cannot say at present whether more or fewer hurricane will occur in the future with global warming, the hurricanes that do occur near the end of the 21st century are expected to be stronger and have significantly more intense rainfall than under present day climate conditions. This expectation (Figure 1) is based on an anticipated enhancement of energy available to the storms due to higher tropical sea surface temperatures.
http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~tk/glob_warm_hurr.htmlScientists see if global warming causes hurricanes
VIDEO
CNN's Natalie Pawelski looks at hurricanes and global warming
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September 17, 1999
Web posted at: 5:06 p.m. EDT (2106 GMT)
(CNN) -- Hurricanes are born in the tropics for a reason: warm water is their fuel.
So some researchers are looking into whether a warmer Earth could bring stronger tropical storms with higher winds and more destruction.
"Certainly, if we warm up the atmosphere that's gonna have effects on the current weather patterns," said John St. John, a research scientist at the Georgia Institute of Technology.
"But our ability to model these is limited by what we understand."
Scientists say that so far, hurricane history provides no evidence of any connection between global warming and hurricanes.
"As recently as four or five years ago, we had a very active season with strong hurricanes -- 1995," said Edward Rappaport of the National Hurricane Center.
"Just two years later though was a very quiet year. Now we're back at an active year. It's hard to pinpoint a relationship between that and global warming, at least at this point."
It is predicted that future hurricanes could be up to 20 percent stronger than today's &nsbp; &nsbp;
Looking into the next century, one study projected future hurricanes up to 20 percent stronger than today's.
But many researchers believe other factors -- including La Nina and other big weather systems -- will overpower any effect global warming might have.
Most climate scientists say that Earth does seem to be heating up.
They think carbon dioxide and other so-called greenhouse gases form an atmospheric blanket that is warming the Earth.
Researchers caution that one has to consider questions of climate change over decades, even centuries.
One weather event, like a strong hurricane or a rough hurricane season, cannot alone be blamed on global warming.
CNN Correspondent Natalie Pawelski contributed to this report
http://www.cnn.com/NATURE/9909/17/floyd.global.warming/Is Global Warming Making Hurricanes Worse?
John Roach
for National Geographic News
August 4, 2005
Hurricanes bring winds and slashing rains that flood streets, flatten homes, and leave survivors struggling to pick up the pieces. But has global warming given the storms an added punch, making the aftereffects more dreadful?
According to hurricane historian Jay Barnes of Pine Knoll Shores, North Carolina, ocean heat is the key ingredient for hurricane formation. More heat could "generate more storms and more intense hurricanes," he said.
Numerous studies in recent years have found no evidence that the number of hurricanes and their northwest Pacific Ocean cousins, typhoons, is increasing because of the rise in global temperatures.
But a new study in the journal Nature found that hurricanes and typhoons have become stronger and longer-lasting over the past 30 years. These upswings correlate with a rise in sea surface temperatures.
The duration and strength of hurricanes have increased by about 50 percent over the last three decades, according to study author Kerry Emanuel, a professor of atmospheric science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge.
Emanuel's finding defies existing models for measuring storm strength. Current models suggest that the intensity of hurricanes and typhoons should increase by 5 percent for every 1ºC (1.8ºF) rise in sea surface temperature.
"We've had half a degree [Celsius] of warming, so that should have led to a 2.5 percent increase [in intensity], which is probably not detectable," Emanuel said. "What we've seen is somewhat bigger than that, and we don't really know why."
One possibility, Emanuel said, is that ocean temperatures may be increasing more quickly than atmospheric temperatures.
"When that happens we've shown theoretically you get an increase in the intensity of hurricanes," he said.
Anatomy of a Hurricane
According to Barnes, who has authored several books on U.S. hurricane history, the physics of hurricanes are complex and full of variables. "But the sun beating down on Earth is the primary thing that gets it going," he said.
Barnes explains in his book North Carolina's Hurricane History that the summer heat warms the ocean's surface and spurs evaporation. As heat and moisture rise into the atmosphere, billowing clouds, scattered showers, and thunderstorms form.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/20...anewarming.html global warming making hurricanes more ferocious? New research suggests the answer is yes. Scientists call the findings both surprising and "alarming'' because they suggest global warming is influencing storms now -- rather than in the distant future.
However, the research doesn't suggest global warming is generating more hurricanes and typhoons.
The analysis by climatologist Kerry Emanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology shows for the first time that major storms spinning in both the Atlantic and the Pacific since the 1970s have increased in duration and intensity by about 50 percent.
These trends are closely linked to increases in the average temperatures of the ocean surface and also correspond to increases in global average atmospheric temperatures during the same period.
"When I look at these results at face value, they are rather alarming,'' said research meteorologist Tom Knutson. "These are very big changes.''
Knutson, who wasn't involved in the study, works in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J.
Emanuel reached his conclusions by analyzing data collected from actual storms rather than using computer models to predict future storm behavior.
Before this study, most researchers believed global warming's contribution to powerful hurricanes was too slight to accurately measure. Most forecasts don't have climate change making a real difference in tropical storms until 2050 or later.
But some scientists questioned Emanuel's methods. For example, the MIT researcher did not consider wind speed information from some powerful storms in the 1950s and 1960s because the details of those storms are inconsistent.
Researchers are using new methods to analyze those storms and others going back as far as 1851. If early storms turn out to be more powerful than originally thought, Emmanuel's findings on global warming's influence on recent tropical storms might not hold up, they said.
"I'm not convinced that it's happening,'' said Christopher W. Landsea, another research meteorologist with NOAA, who works at a different lab, the Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory in Miami. Landsea is a director of the historical hurricane reanalysis.
"His conclusions are contingent on a very large bias removal that is large or larger than the global warming signal itself,'' Landsea said.
Details of Emanuel's study appear Sunday in the online version of the journal Nature.
Theories and computer simulations indicate that global warming should generate an increase in storm intensity, in part because warmer temperatures would heat up the surface of the oceans. Especially in the Atlantic and Caribbean basins, pools of warming seawater provide energy for storms as they swirl and grow over the open oceans.
Emanuel analyzed records of storm measurements made by aircraft and satellites since the 1950s. He found the amount of energy released in these storms in both the North Atlantic and the North Pacific oceans has increased, especially since the mid-1970s.
In the Atlantic, the sea surface temperatures show a pronounced upward trend. The same is true in the North Pacific, though the data there is more variable, he said.
"This is the first time I have been convinced we are seeing a signal in the actual hurricane data,'' Emanuel said in an e-mail exchange.
"The total energy dissipated by hurricanes turns out to be well correlated with tropical sea surface temperatures,'' he said. "The large upswing in the past decade is unprecedented and probably reflects the effects of global warming.''
This year marked the first time on record that the Atlantic spawned four named storms by early July, as well as the earliest category 4 storm on record. Hurricanes are ranked on an intensity scale of 1 to 5.
In the past decade, the southeastern United States and the Caribbean basin have been pummeled by the most active hurricane cycle on record. Forecasters expect the stormy trend to continue for another 20 years or more.
Even without global warming, hurricane cycles tend to be a consequence of natural salinity and temperature changes in the Atlantic's deep current circulation that shift back and forth every 40 to 60 years.
Since the 1970s, hurricanes have caused more property damage and casualties. Researchers disagree over whether this destructiveness is a consequence of the storms' growing intensity or the population boom along vulnerable coastlines.
"The damage and casualties produced by more intense storms could increase considerably in the future,'' Emanuel said.
http://www.livescience.com/forcesofnature/...s_stronger.html____________________________________________________________________
i herd the reson the levys in new orleens clapsed was not from being over toped but in sted from crubaling dering Katrina from lack of mantanise and upgrads.
